How the named-credit review was built
- Universe: every named credit in AG's 4Q25 Financial Supplement (top-50 US exposures, top-50 non-US exposures, full BIG list, deduplicated) plus sector aggregates from the AGL Q2 2026 10-Q (filed 8/7/2026).
- Method: stratified sampling, rating-agency style. A-rated-and-above performing names get a one-line verdict from filing rating + sector. Deep research (current news, rating actions, refinancing walls) only for BBB-and-below, all BIG names, and the known-stressed list.
- Traffic lights are reviewer judgment, not agency ratings.
- The CUSIP boundary — stated upfront: AGO discloses named large exposures, not literally every CUSIP. No public filing gives the full CUSIP list. "Line by line" here means every disclosed credit plus stratified sector coverage of the undisclosed tail.
How the CUSIP tape was built
- Source: primary offering documents (official statements) filed on EMMA (emma.msrb.org), found via web-index discovery across all 50 states, DC, and territories, targeting insurer-language variants ("Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp", "Assured Guaranty Corp", "Assured Guaranty Inc.", "Financial Security Assurance", "municipal bond insurance policy").
- Acceptance rule: a document counts only if it contains affirmative bond-insurance language naming an Assured entity as insurer of the bonds being offered. Specimen policies in unrelated documents, merger notices, and continuing-disclosure filings that merely mention AGM are rejected or flagged, not counted.
- CUSIP extraction: full 9-character CUSIPs from CUSIP blocks, or base CUSIP + suffixes from the inside cover. Every candidate must pass the CUSIP check-digit algorithm. Extraction is limited to the first 30 pages (inside cover / maturity schedule) so escrow holdings, investment schedules, and refunded-bond tables in appendices are excluded. Base+suffix CUSIPs must sit within 200 characters of a maturity year.
- Corporate succession: AGM merged into Assured Guaranty Inc. effective August 1, 2024; legacy FSA policies were assumed by AGM in 2009. The tape preserves original insurer entity as named in the document and maps to the current entity.
- Partial-maturity insurance is detected and recorded (
insurance_scope = full / partial-range / partial-listed / partial-series); per-CUSIP insured_likely (yes / no / uncertain) is an analytical aid, not a verification. No partial-scope CUSIP is published as verified wrapped without manual maturity-schedule review.
- Deduplication: the same CUSIP in multiple documents → one row, all sources cited. Refundings are flagged; refunded (defeased) CUSIPs are not current exposure.
- Validation sample: Cedar Rapids CSD 2022 → 10/10 expected CUSIPs; Murrieta Valley USD 2020 → 19/19 with zero leakage from a 244-page appendix (261 unrelated CUSIPs correctly excluded); CommonSpirit 2025A, PREPA Series DDD, Yankee Stadium 2020, Citi Field 2021, Cedar Rapids 2022 all validated case-by-case.
Hard limitations
- EMMA covers US municipal securities only. It cannot see UK water (Thames, South East, Yorkshire), the Channel Tunnel, Sydney Airport, US structured products (CLOs, TruPS CDOs), private/144A transactions, or secondary-market wraps without a filing. Those credits are marked "no public indenture — private/144A or non-US" in the explorer.
- OCR-poor and scanned documents cause false negatives — the tape undercounts by construction.
- Original issue par ≠ current AGO net par. Bonds mature, are called, or are refunded; AGO cedes reinsurance. Harvested par is labeled original par at issuance and never equated to current net par.
- Pre-2009 legacy documents are thinly indexed — FSA-era coverage is partial.
- EMMA shows issuance, not AGO's retained net par after reinsurance, refundings, or amortization.
- Verification statuses (
extracted-unreviewed and others) are shown on every row — treat unreviewed rows as machine-extracted, not manually confirmed.
- Core filings: AG 4Q25 Financial Supplement (par, internal ratings, geography/sector, BIG list); AGL 10-Q Q2 2026 (sector table, Note 5 expected loss, Note 6 loss & LAE, BIG tables, Thames £1.8bn disclosure); AGL Q2 2026 8-K (PVP, buybacks, ABV); Q2 2026 Fixed Income Presentation (CPR $9,978M); Q1 2026 Equity Presentation (BIG >$250M detail).
Still-open verification items
- Thames exposure discrepancy: ~$1.64B (4Q25 supplement) vs ~$2.4B/£1.8B (Q2 2026 10-Q) — reconcile before quoting a single number.
- Palomar forbearance status after January 2026; identification of the reported $290M CCC tranches.
- Brightline RSA effectiveness and legal status; primary confirmation of the 44¢ recovery source and its assumptions.
- Jackson/Harrisburg claim-payment history; Dartford listing-suspension reason.
- Middle-market CLO attachment points; composition of ~$2.5B structured "Other."
- Whether Fitch's September 2026 Alameda action was a downgrade or watch-negative.
- Reconcile June 30, 2026 AGO loss measures: $192M net expected loss to be paid vs $321M net expected loss to be expensed vs $282M future loss and LAE — not interchangeable.
- The assertion that S&P's capital model explicitly credits non-acceleration needs sourcing before public reuse.
About this site
Independent analytical exercise prepared September 2026 from public filings and press. Not a rating action, not investment advice. Scenario math is illustrative, not a forecast. Data files (data/credits.json, data/cusips.json) are rebuilt from the deck sources and the EMMA tape by regenerate_data.py — see REDEPLOY.md for the refresh runbook.